13 Aug · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1642
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zika
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1585
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Zika rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (133)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H39-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.