13 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1663
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1706
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Postelt🌟Postelt covers set handicap as underdog 71% (95)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H48-64
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.