13 Aug · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Martin Biolek
ELO 1696
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Biolek
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1642
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zika🌟Zika covers set handicap as underdog 69% (378)
Fair odds · Biolek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H37-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.