13 Aug · 17:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1663
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Postelt
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1600
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kratochvil🌟Kratochvil covers set handicap as underdog 65% (172)
Fair odds · Postelt
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.