13 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1545
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tuma
LK
🇨🇿Lubos Krticka
ELO 1527
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H8-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.