13 Aug · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇨🇿Karel Kapras
ELO 1485
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krticka
LK
🇨🇿Lubos Krticka
ELO 1527
FormLWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Krticka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.