14 Aug · 03:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1572
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sebera
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1641
FormLLWWW
46%
54%
🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+69
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.