14 Aug · 02:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skakal
ELO 1558
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Regner
MR
🇨🇿Michal Regner
ELO 1561
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Regner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.