15 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇨🇿Vojtech Stach
ELO 1390
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stach
JM
🇨🇿Jaroslav Martinek
ELO 1320
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Martinek stays under total as underdog 73% (22)
Fair odds · Stach
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.