15 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Stolba
ELO 1420
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stolba
JF
🇨🇿Jiri Foltynek
ELO 1348
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Foltynek🌟Stolba rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (13)
Fair odds · Stolba
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.