15 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1474
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Didi
JD
🇨🇿Julius Didi
ELO 1489
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek
Fair odds · Didi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H18-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.