15 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1364
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vrabec
LH
🇨🇿Leos Havrda
ELO 1330
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Havrda stays under total as underdog 63% (63)
Fair odds · Vrabec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.