15 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1618
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wawrosz
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1656
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Polasek🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (177)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H20-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.