15 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1595
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zika
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1633
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Zika rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (134)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H39-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.