15 Aug · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Novotny
ELO 1424
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novotny
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1384
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Novotny goes over total as favourite 65% (37)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H13-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.