17 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1540
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wagner
FP
🇨🇿Frantisek Pusch
ELO 1518
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🌟Wagner stays under total as favourite 62% (66)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.