17 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1484
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tuma
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1548
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H51-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.