17 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FP
🇨🇿Frantisek Pusch
ELO 1518
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wagner
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1540
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Wagner stays under total as favourite 62% (66)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.