16 Aug · 19:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hrabec
ELO 1557
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hrabec
IT
🇨🇿Ivo Taichman
ELO 1545
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Taichman
Fair odds · Hrabec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.