16 Aug · 19:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1615
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stolfa
JD
🇨🇿Jiri Dedek
ELO 1529
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Stolfa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+86
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.