17 Aug · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1571
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hofman
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1516
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (90)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H11-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.