18 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇨🇿Vladimir Kubat
ELO 1263
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koch
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1300
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.