18 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LF
🇨🇿Lubos Forman
ELO 1345
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vrabec
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1392
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Vrabec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 25% · 3.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H5-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.