18 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1391
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Madle
LF
🇨🇿Lubos Forman
ELO 1345
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Madle
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.