18 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1300
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koch
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1258
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 32% · 3.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H0-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.