18 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1492
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Trefny
JP
🇨🇿Jaroslav Prokupek
ELO 1439
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Trefny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 19% (26)
Fair odds · Trefny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.