18 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1683
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Paril
RR
🇨🇿Radomir Revay
ELO 1665
FormWWWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Revay🌟Revay covers set handicap as underdog 72% (155)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H22-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.