19 Aug · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1636
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Louda
VS
🇨🇿Vojtech Svechota
ELO 1616
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Svechota🌟Svechota covers set handicap as underdog 62% (40)
Fair odds · Louda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.