21 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1354
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chalupnicek
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1414
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
🌟Chalupnicek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (51)
Fair odds · Chalupnicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H5-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.