21 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vinter
ELO 1468
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Svoboda
JS
🇨🇿Jan Svoboda
ELO 1497
FormLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Svoboda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~70 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.