22 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1529
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tuma
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zmuda🌟Zmuda covers set handicap as underdog 67% (57)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.