22 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Marcel Heczko
ELO 1535
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oborny
DO
🇨🇿Dominik Oborny
ELO 1595
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Oborny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+60
H2H48-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.