22 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AV
🇨🇿Alexandr Virag
ELO 1454
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zurek
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1471
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Virag rarely covers set handicap as underdog 27% (22)
Fair odds · Zurek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H13-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.