22 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1568
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dousek
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousek
ELO 1651
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tomica🌟Tomica covers set handicap as underdog 63% (35)
Fair odds · Dousek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+83
H2H11-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.