22 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1649
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Paril
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tomica
ELO 1568
FormLWLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tomica🌟Paril rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (238)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+81
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.