23 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1532
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Walek
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1559
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heczko🌟Walek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (92)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.09· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.