23 Aug · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇨🇿Leos Havrda
ELO 1334
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Havrda
JH
🇨🇿Jiri Hyrsl
ELO 1280
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Havrda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.