22 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Novotny
ELO 1407
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novotny
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1393
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Syroha🌟Novotny goes over total as favourite 63% (41)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.