23 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1358
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Toth
DV
🇨🇿David Vavrecka
ELO 1356
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🌟Vavrecka rarely covers set handicap as underdog 8% (13)
Fair odds · Toth
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.