23 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZL
🇨🇿Zdenek Luksa
ELO 1398
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Luksa
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1358
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Toth covers set handicap as underdog 68% (34)
Fair odds · Luksa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.