23 Aug · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1468
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mikula
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stach
ELO 1448
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mikula
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H2-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.