23 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Alois Kanak
ELO 1343
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Toth
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1358
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Toth rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Toth
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H7-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.