23 Aug · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stach
ELO 1448
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stach
VC
🇨🇿Vojtech Cerny
ELO 1417
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Cerny stays under total as underdog 71% (28)
Fair odds · Stach
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.