23 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1481
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1434
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stefek
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H17-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.