23 Aug · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MJ
🇨🇿Milan Jasek
ELO 1492
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jasek
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1468
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mikula🌟Jasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (54)
Fair odds · Jasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H13-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.