23 Aug · 01:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1508
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Postelt
VP
🇨🇿Vladimir Postelt
ELO 1574
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Trefny stays under total as underdog 69% (32)
Fair odds · Postelt
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+66
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.