29 Aug · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Pozarsky
ELO 1557
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pozarsky
PB
🇨🇿Petr Budinsky
ELO 1537
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Budinsky stays under total as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Pozarsky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.