29 Aug · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Miroslav Vaclavik
ELO 1410
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stach
VS
🇨🇿Vojtech Stach
ELO 1428
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Vaclavik stays under total as underdog 67% (33)
Fair odds · Stach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.