29 Aug · 14:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1675
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Paril
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1574
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (239)
Fair odds · Paril
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.77· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+101
H2H25-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-20)