29 Aug · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1644
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Barton
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1559
FormLLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanera🌟Barton rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (105)
Fair odds · Barton
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+85
H2H7-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.